Which European Destination Looks Set To See Impressive Growth In Visitors?

Factors, such as Brexit and ongoing security concerns, do not appear to have dampened the desire of British travelers for international travel. According to the Office For National Statistics, travelers from the UK took a record 70.8 million trips abroad in 2016 – up 8% on 2015. 2017 got off to a strong start with Travel Weekly reporting an increase in outbound departures of 2% for the first 4 months of 2017.

In its annual travel trends report, the Office for National Statistics lists the top destinations that UK residents visited in the previous year and how the number of visits changed compared to the previous year – Spain came out on top with over 14 million visits and a 13% increase on 2015.

We took a look at how the year-on-year changes compare to the changes in Google’s published hotel search volumes from the UK for the top destinations visited by UK residents in 2016. We found a correlation between the two figures:

• Spain – saw actual visit increase by 13% in 2016 compared to 2015, hotel searches increased by an average of 16% in Q2-Q4 2016 compared to the same period in 2015
• France – actual visits – 3% / hotel searches -3%
• Italy – actual visits 16% / hotel searches 15%
• Ireland – actual visits 6% / hotel searches 4%
• The US – actual visits 3% / hotel searches 4%
• Portugal – actual visits 8% / hotel searches 10%
• Netherlands – actual visits 8% / hotel searches 7%
• Germany – actual visits 5% / hotel searches 11%
• Greece – actual visits 7% / hotel searches 10%

If search data is an indication of the changes that will be seen for final 2017 visits from the UK to overseas destinations what changes can we expect to see (based on average year-on-year changes in searches from the UK for airlines, hotels and package vacations in Q1 and Q2 2017)?

Spain will likely remain the top destination for British travelers; however, growth looks set to slow to around 2%, suggesting Brits are starting to look elsewhere for summer sun perhaps a result of concerns over the destination reaching capacity. Italy and Germany also look set to see growth plateau with 0% and 1% year-on-year growth respectively.

France may see visits fall year-on-year by around -3%, travelers may be looking elsewhere in light of the reduce value of the British Pound and security concerns. Ireland also looks set to see visits fall by -3% year-on-year, again perhaps due to the weaker pound. Meanwhile, the US could see visits drop by as much as -6% in 2017 with rising Air Passenger Duty, poor exchange rates and the political landscape all potentially keeping travelers away.

As an alternative to the likes of Spain, Portugal looks set to see growth remaining steady at 7% growth year-on-year. The Netherlands also looks set to see steady growth at 9%. If this level of growth is achieved both countries could see visits from the UK surpass the 3 million mark in 2017.

Greece looks set to be the one to watch for 2017 with year-on-year growth likely to grow 13% year-on-year, up from 7% growth in 2016. With warnings that Spain may be reaching capacity, it seems that more British holidaymakers are turning to Greece for some summer sun.

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