What Does the Mobile Payments Market Look Like in 2019?

No question, the Mobile Payments market is growing rapidly. Did you know that Mobile Payments is a market that has existed for years, but hasn’t taken off until recently? From the introduction of Google Wallet in 2011 to the rise of Apple Pay in 2014, mobile payments technology, both on the consumer and retailer side has moved to the center of the conversation in 2015. But where will the market stand in 2019, twelve years after the dawn of the smartphone wars and half a decade after Apple Pay?

According to a Business Insider report, the numbers are staggering: In 2019, 14.8% of all in-store payments will be completed with a mobile device, surpassing $800 billion by the end of that same year—a 172% increase in compounded annual growth rate, or CAGR.

Seven Reasons Mobile Payments is an $800+ Billion Market in 2019

This estimate may seem fantastic, but attainable, and the Business Insider Report attributes this rapid growth to the following seven drivers:

1. Apple Pay to Drive Consumer Adoption: When Apple Pay made its debut, it saw its share of fanfare and criticism. However, the announcement marked a change to mobility, as Google Wallet saw an increase in adoption as well as the CurrenC. Nonetheless, Apple’s control of the consumer will be the main driver, providing the other side—retailers—the motivation to upgrade their technology, leading to trend 2.
2. Apple Pay Driving the Continued Retailer Adoption of NFC Terminals: Retailers had an early dilemma—Near Field Communication (NFC) or QR Code—before Apple Pay answered that question. Apple Pay, which uses NFC, drove retailers to choose NFC terminals as opposed to using QR technology. Now that there is one answer to the dilemma, and retailers are responding with increased purchases of NFC terminals, according to VeriFone, leading provider of terminals.
3. Continued Adoption of Mobile Payments on Android: Whichever application wins the Android mobile payment solution will have an incredible opportunity to control a much larger market share than that of Apple. Google Wallet saw an increase of use of its NFC mobile payment app, and furthered its growth with acquisition of Softcard in early 2015.
4. Mobile Payments Technology will Grow Because That’s Where Most of Spending is Done: Retailers with over $5 million in sales account for only 34% of retail locations but 82% of in-store payment volume in the US. Pay. Volume will push higher because the biggest retailers accept Apple Pay, and this is where consumers do the bulk of their in-store spending.
5. Mobile Payments Meets Mobile Loyalty and Coupon Programs: Mobile payments could revitalize in-store shopping: One in four consumers who discovered a digital coupon on their smartphone actually redeemed it in a physical store. Tie this to proven success in-store by a retailer like Starbucks, which has already seen mobile payments rise to 15% at this time last year by integrating loyalty programs into the Starbucks payments app.
6. Non-Apple Pay and Non-Google Wallet competitor CurrentC Won’t Flop: The merchants using CurrentC are going to push the platform hard, and even with mediocre adoption of the trillion-dollar aggregate, the market is large enough to drive an increase in use. Further, this could find co-usage, as merchants that don’t accept Apple Pay could force the hand of consumers. Or, the exact opposite could happen, leading to trend seven.
7. MCX (CurrentC) Merchants Caving: Consumers want to use their choice of mobile payments offering and merchants have already begun to listen. Best Buy, a member of MCX, announced in April that it would accept Apple Pay. Many other MCX retailers have or will follow suit, allowing consumers to adopt their choice of payments.

All of these, paired with the generally expected increase of in-store sales (3.5% annually, BLS), and adoption of EMV terminals requiring upgrades among businesses, will lead to an increase in Mobile Payments, supporting the Business Insider prediction.

Source: Business Insider Intelligence: THE MOBILE PAYMENTS REPORT: Apple Pay’s Ramp-Up, New In-Store Payments Forecast, and The Mobile Wallet Wars. Available with trial subscription. Other BI Mobile Payments Report highlights available here.